
On December 7, Ghana will hold general elections to choose both the president and members of parliament. Around 18.8 million Ghanaians are registered to engage in the voting process.
The political scene in Ghana is largely shaped by two major parties: the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). This two-party system fosters a highly competitive atmosphere. Current Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia and former President John Mahama are the frontrunners in the current polls.
Bawumia has held the position of Vice President under Nana Akufo-Addo for eight years, as the incumbent is ineligible to run again due to term limits. Mahama previously served as president from 2012 for four-and-a-half years before losing the 2016 elections.
Other significant candidates include Nana Kwame Bediako, a prominent businessman, and Alan Kyerematen, the former Minister of Trade and Industry, who left the NPP last year.
Often regarded as a beacon of democracy in Africa, Ghana enjoys a strong reputation for its electoral practices, demonstrated by its regular and peaceful power transitions since the revival of multiparty democracy in 1992. Results are expected to be announced by December 10, based on previous elections.
Alex Vines, director of the Africa programme at Chatham House, notes that the election outcome remains unpredictable.
“This election is anticipated to be fiercely competitive. Earlier this year, I thought the NDC would achieve an easy victory. Now, it’s uncertain; a presidential runoff could occur, with the NDC possibly excelling in parliamentary seats while the NPP might secure the presidency. The truth is, we won’t know until Ghanaians cast their votes.”
Economy central to contest
The forthcoming elections in Ghana have highlighted several pressing issues, particularly concerning economic management, as voters showcase growing concern over inflation, widespread unemployment, the rising cost of living, frequent power outages, and public debt.
Naidoo emphasizes that a mix of existing challenges, including reckless borrowing and public spending that contributed to Ghana’s 2022 default, along with external global disruptions, have led to financing difficulties, reducing international reserves, escalating inflation, and a depreciating cedi. He mentions that the consequences of a downturn in commodity prices affecting the cocoa and oil industries, worsened by hyperinflation at the end of 2022, have left “people genuinely exhausted.”
In May 2023, the IMF authorized a 36-month extended credit facility worth approximately $3 billion for Ghana, expected to run until 2026. Recently, the fund approved the third review of the programme, which allows for an immediate disbursement of around $360 million.
While the programme undergoes regular reviews and may adapt based on election results, both parties will likely need to function within its financial limitations.
Within these constraints, the parties are striving to carve out distinct paths. Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, points out that Mahama’s NDC seeks to increase government expenditure in social sectors. Conversely, Bawumia’s NPP intends to prioritize economic stability by lowering inflation and attracting private sector investment.
“In terms of requests and immediate economic impact, there won’t be major changes because Ghana’s fiscal policy is constrained by the IMF programme,” Naidoo states.
Bright Simons, a Ghanaian social innovator, entrepreneur, writer, and commentator, tells African Business that the electorate’s focus on urgent issues deters parties from making bold promises for significant reforms.
A tough road ahead
The primary challenge is inflation. Consumer prices, which have risen over the last three months, climbed by 23% year-on-year in November, compared to 22.1% in October, primarily driven by increasing costs of essential food items.
Furthermore, the strength of the cedi remains a prominent challenge. The currency has sharply depreciated against the US dollar due to the economic strains introduced by the Covid-19 pandemic and faced additional pressures in 2022 when Ghana defaulted on a significant portion of its external debt.
Since early 2020, the US dollar has increased nearly 180% against the Ghanaian cedi, which currently trades at approximately 15 to the dollar, up from 11 in May 2023.
Tackling these issues—while collaborating with the IMF to reform the economy and attract investments—will be a demanding task for the incoming administration, according to Vines.
“The next administration will confront a significant challenge in reforming the Ghanaian economy and drawing in fresh investment for sustainable growth. Politicians often over-promise yet underestimate the tough choices that await; this is common in democratic elections. Their commitments need to be carefully evaluated.”