DailySun
In October, the UK government revealed it had reached a final agreement to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, sparking controversy in both the UK and the US.
With a new government in Mauritius seemingly against the agreement and the incoming Trump administration in the US strongly opposing the proposal, the UK government may find it necessary to reassess its position.
The accord has generated skepticism on both sides of the Atlantic as the Chagos Islands, a remote archipelago in the Indian Ocean claimed by Mauritius for decades, possess considerable strategic significance. The islands host a joint US-UK military base at Diego Garcia, critical for countering Chinese influence in the region.
Under the deal announced in early October, the UK consented to transfer full sovereignty of the islands to Mauritius, including Diego Garcia, while also offering a financial support package to Mauritius. However, the agreement stipulated that the UK would be allowed to continue operating its military base at Diego Garcia for an initial duration of 99 years.
New Mauritian government expresses doubt
Following the elections in Mauritius in November, which resulted in a change of government, the newly appointed Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam has voiced concerns regarding the transfer, indicating that he needs “more time to review the details with a panel of legal advisors.”
Ramgoolam has not elaborated on his reasons but suggested that finalizing such a significant agreement so close to an election, which his predecessor was likely to lose, was inappropriate. During his election campaign, he accused his predecessor of “high treason” for agreeing to a “sell-out” deal that permitted Britain to maintain its base at Diego Garcia for another century.
Nevertheless, a British foreign policy expert with a focus on African issues, who wishes to remain anonymous due to prior roles in the UK government, suspects that Mauritius may be reconsidering the deal to avoid entanglement in geopolitical rivalries.
“The deal was rushed through without consultation with the Chagossians, who evidently prefer not to see their islands governed by Mauritius. Now facing the tangible costs and responsibilities of managing the Chagos Islands, the Mauritian government appears reluctant to become enmeshed in US-China tensions,” they explained.
UK’s rationale for the deal faces scrutiny
Supporters of the agreement regarded it as a chance to conclude the final remnants of British colonialism in Africa, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stating it would “address historical injustices and demonstrate a commitment from both parties to support the welfare of Chagossians.”
The British government also viewed the move as a means to “reset” its relationships with African nations and bolster broader African support for British foreign policy aims, such as assisting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
However, numerous analysts are skeptical that the Chagos Islands deal will achieve this goal. Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at the Chatham House think tank in London, believes that “the Chagos Islands do not significantly impact the UK’s bilateral relations beyond the western Indian Ocean, particularly with Mauritius.”
The decision has also incited outrage in some quarters, with Edward Howell, a geopolitics lecturer at the University of Oxford, stating to African Business that “the choice to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius is beneath contempt and amounts to a disaster for the UK’s foreign policy.”
The former UK government source contends that the Chagos Islands agreement highlights a misguided approach by the new UK government in handling African affairs.
“From an African perspective, there is minimal interest in culturally insensitive identity politics or naive gestures that diminish the UK’s effectiveness or influence as a bastion of security and liberal democracy,” they assert to African Business.
“The emerging African educated youth and burgeoning middle class seek relationships grounded in mutual respect, investment, and opportunities—not empty apologies stemming from post-colonial guilt or signs of geopolitical weakness.”
The source further notes that, from a British perspective, “reversing the Chagos Islands decision would be a positive outcome.”
Incoming Trump team demonstrates hostility
Meanwhile, the upcoming US administration under President Donald Trump, anticipated to adopt a robust anti-China stance, opposes the deal.
Critics express concerns that these strategically vital islands could become a foothold for Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean after the expiration of the US-UK military base’s 99-year lease, especially considering Mauritius’ amicable relations with China.
Nigel Farage, a British MP closely associated with the Trump administration, recently informed the House of Commons that the Chagos Islands deal would likely encounter “outright hostility” from the incoming president. Marco Rubio, Trump’s choice for Secretary of State, has also asserted that the deal undermines US security.
The former UK government source is particularly critical.
“The approaching US Republican administration perceives this as a strategic blunder from a UK ally that has already stumbled in Iraq and Afghanistan, overreaching its limits and then recklessly dismantling some of the world’s most capable armed forces amid escalating global risks.”
