What Does the Future Hold for Employment in South Africa?

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JIMMY MOYAHA: We’re examining the future of employment as discussed by the World Economic Forum. With their forthcoming conference in Davos next week, they have published a Future of Jobs report that we will explore and analyze.

I’m joined by economist and founder of Pan African Investments, Dr. Iraj Abedian, to elaborate on this. Dr. Iraj, thank you for being with us today. The World Economic Forum’s report is quite fascinating. What insights does it offer regarding the labor market on both local and global scales?

IRAJ ABEDIAN: First of all, Jimmy, I want to extend my best wishes to you and our listeners for a happy new year. Regarding this report, it’s important to note that the World Economic Forum is not the sole entity predicting the future of job markets around the globe.

Almost every research institution conveys a consistent message, suggesting that conventional classifications of employment—ranging from low-skilled to highly skilled—are becoming increasingly anachronistic.

Regardless, all job categories will be profoundly affected by digitalization, generative technologies, artificial intelligence [AI], and the evolving nature of workplaces.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, we adapted to remote working; this is just the beginning.

A significant percentage of traditional jobs—possibly 40-45%—such as administrative and clerical functions, may be completely eliminated, similar to how typewriters have become irrelevant, and typist roles have disappeared. This is the fundamental takeaway.

To envision the future of work, we need to adopt systemic thinking, assess applications, prioritize automation, and importantly, acknowledge the digital and organizational restructuring of job markets.

This presents a considerable challenge for everyone, especially the youth. There are additional aspects to explore.

JIMMY MOYAHA: One of those aspects is the skills required. What does this transformation mean for the skills that will be sought after? As you indicated, typewriters are now outdated, and automation is steadily advancing, suggesting that new skill sets are essential. What skills should we be anticipating for the future?

IRAJ ABEDIAN: At the heart of this change is the growing necessity for analytical skills, application development capabilities, and the re-automation of processes. This encompasses proficiencies in software creation, data integration, and the management of extensive datasets, coupled with a global viewpoint on database application. Furthermore, the ability to leverage big data across various sectors—such as healthcare, marketing, and production—will be imperative.

Thus, the transition, as I see it, will move from low-skilled, frontline positions to skill-intensive, knowledge-driven, and analytics-oriented roles.

This indicates a radical shift in income distribution and considerably alters the age demographics of the employable workforce.

Additionally, individuals are likely to remain in the job market longer; the conventional retirement age of 55 to 65 may be pushed back. Consequently, there could be an uptick in entry-level unemployment, which would have socio-economic and political implications.

JIMMY MOYAHA: Dr. Iraj, how can a nation brace for this? As an economist, you analyze economic growth and development. How can economies, like South Africa’s, adapt to the acknowledged transitions brought about by AI, given that new sectors and markets need to be cultivated? What strategies can be implemented to ensure that the economy evolves and prospers in this shifting labor landscape?

IRAJ ABEDIAN: Honestly, I wish I had definitive answers …

Let me be completely candid: the pace of change is so swift that we will witness more transformations in the next five years than we have seen in the last 50 or even 20 years.

The rapidity of these changes makes it difficult to foresee the future, as it entails understanding what the next five years will bring—information we currently lack. With all humility, I acknowledge that very few, if any, can assure that they know.

Secondly, there is a crucial need to fundamentally reevaluate our education system, shifting from the conventional schooling methods rooted in the Industrial Revolution to a framework that centers on human-resource development.

This requires preparing younger generations for a radically different way of acquiring knowledge, applying it, and connecting what they know with what they do not.

This re-envisioning of education is essential in countries like ours, where the educational system encounters unique challenges. I wish to clarify that I’m not discussing philosophy. Currently, politicians and policymakers are focusing on basic needs, such as improving sanitation in schools, rather than transforming our education systems into a comprehensive human-resource development framework aimed at lifelong learning, effectively equipping our youth for analytical thinking from an early age—not just through six or seven hours of formal education.

This signifies a significant transformation in our human-resource development strategy before, during, and after formal education, as well as for life beyond employment.

Personally, I’ve had to adapt my skills several times over the past decade. With each stride in technology, my field is affected, compelling me to keep pace or face obsolescence.

This presents a considerable challenge for nations like South Africa—we must shift the narrative. Acknowledging the urgency of the situation is crucial, and we must examine immediate strategies that facilitate human-resource development, such as enhancing broadband access, among other factors. Thus, this is at the forefront of our challenges.

JIMMY MOYAHA: The only constant in life is change [chuckles], and that is exactly what the report underscores.

We’ll need to conclude our conversation here. Dr. Iraj, I truly value your time and insights.

Iraj Abedian, an economist and founder of Pan African Investments, has been reflecting on the World Economic Forum’s latest Future of Jobs report, which highlights numerous ongoing transformations and the critical need for reevaluation as we move toward the future of employment.

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