Could ETFs Drive Ripple’s Growth by 1,500%?

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, recently discussed the challenges and progress of XRP ETF applications. He acknowledged that while earlier submissions faced starts and stops, with some companies retracting their applications, the presence of multiple issuers now reapplying indicates that the SEC is at least willing to consider these ETFs.

Hougan remains cautiously optimistic, noting that although approval could take time, the SEC appears increasingly open to discussing these products.

He also highlighted a crucial difference between XRP and other commodity-based ETFs like Bitcoin and gold; those assets previously had regulated futures markets before their ETF approvals, while XRP does not currently have such a market.

While a futures market isn’t essential for XRP ETFs, it may play a significant role in the approval process.

These applications are particularly intriguing against the backdrop of the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC. In December 2020, the SEC initiated a lawsuit against Ripple, asserting that XRP had been sold as an unregistered security.

Ripple saw a partial victory in August 2023 when a federal judge ruled that XRP is not considered a security when traded on secondary markets. Nonetheless, regulatory uncertainty continues to complicate the ETF approval path for XRP compared to spot Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum ETFs.

Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, pointed out the irony of the situation — while the SEC is embroiled in litigation with Ripple, it is simultaneously reviewing an ETF that includes XRP. Geraci characterized this as an “enormous message,” hinting at a potential shift in the SEC’s stance regarding XRP.

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have estimated a 65% likelihood of XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025.

XRP’s Pivotal Moment Approaches

XRP is entering a crucial phase as it nears a resistance level that has historically shaped its path.

In the last two months, XRP has tested the $3.15 to $3.50 range, a vital area that consistently determines whether XRP will embark on a significant rally or remain in consolidation.

On January 16, XRP reached a peak of $3.39, but that attempt to move forward faltered. Then, on February 3, XRP plummeted 43% to $1.94 as global markets reacted to Trump’s tariff threats, resulting in one of the biggest selloffs in crypto history.

Despite this turbulence, XRP has rebounded and is once again approaching the same resistance level, setting the stage for a potential breakout.

Beyond immediate fluctuations, a notable development is on the horizon. XRP is nearing the completion of a rounding bottom pattern that has been developing since 2018 — a structure that has taken nearly seven years to form.

If XRP regains its all-time high of $3.89, the rounding bottom pattern will be regarded as complete, signifying the end of a prolonged accumulation phase. At that point, XRP would enter price discovery, facing no historical resistance.

The crucial question remains: what will catalyze the ultimate breakthrough? Current broader market conditions do not fully facilitate this, as Bitcoin has yet to establish a new all-time high, and liquidity remains constrained to a limited number of assets.

A significant potential trigger is ETF approval. If the SEC permits an XRP ETF, institutional demand could surge, pushing prices past resistance levels due to increased trading volume.

Another key factor is strategic adoption — if XRP becomes part of a financial system reserve or secures a substantial institutional use case, this heightened demand could drive it into uncharted territories.

The final variable is the SEC lawsuit appeal. A dismissal of the appeal could provide legal clarity, leading to a surge in purchasing activity.

With great anticipation, many await to see if XRP can finally break through or if it will endure another déjà vu moment. The impending attempt to surpass $3.50 could be one of the most significant in its history.

XRP Price Prediction: Is History Set to Repeat?

XRP’s bull run in 2017 stands as a notable reference point, with various indicators suggesting that XRP is mirroring the setup that preceded its remarkable rise.

A persuasive bullish argument comes from Egrag Crypto, who highlights the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB), a technical indicator used to evaluate whether an asset is in a bullish or bearish trend.

“Currently, we are positioned above the BMSB,” he notes, emphasizing that he anticipated XRP would retrace to this level even when it was priced at $3.40. A successful retest of this support may indicate that the market is building momentum for its next move.

Egrag draws parallels to 2017 when XRP followed a nearly identical path. He notes that during that period, XRP approached the BMSB shortly before a 1,500% rise within just four weeks, targeting the Fib 1.618 level.

Fibonacci levels are frequently used in technical analysis to predict price movements, and in 2017, XRP’s breakout followed this specific pattern. Should history repeat itself, Egrag anticipates a 1,500% rise to $27.

Building on this, Javon Marks points out that XRP’s recent price trends closely resemble its breakout in 2017. The prices have recently neared the all-time high as a resistance level, similar to their behavior in 2017 before surpassing it. Marks has set a new secondary target at $99, representing a staggering 3,900% increase from current levels.

In addition to Fibonacci extensions, Elliott Wave theory suggests substantial potential for XRP. Dark Defender has been analyzing XRP’s wave structure since July 2023, when the price hovered around 40 to 50 cents.

According to his analysis, XRP is currently in Wave 4 of the Intermediate Cycle, with Wave 5 targeting $5.85. His Primary Cycle Waves indicate a major target of $18.22.

“I’ve implemented the same structure since July 2023, and it has proven consistently reliable,” Dark Defender asserts, implying that XRP has consistently followed this pattern. If his wave count proves accurate, XRP could soon conclude a pivotal cycle.

Nonetheless, substantial breakouts rarely happen in isolation. XRP still faces considerable resistance within the $3.15 to $3.50 range, necessitating a significant catalyst to break through.

For traders looking to leverage this setup, risk management is paramount. Employing stop-loss orders can help mitigate losses if rejection occurs, and steering clear of excessive leverage is crucial, as sudden pullbacks could lead to liquidation.

However, nothing is assured in the cryptocurrency market. The same indicators that indicate explosive potential may also falter amid fluctuating market conditions. Trade wisely, manage risks, and ensure you never invest more than you can comfortably afford to lose.