DailySun
If the Melbourne Cup is the race that captures the attention of an entire nation, then the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe might be the event that captivates an entire continent.
Let’s give a nod to Japan!
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Credit: AFP
While Japan has yet to secure a victory in this prestigious Group 1 race at Longchamp in Paris, they are making a notable three-pronged effort this year.
However, French competitors have a strong presence, alongside fierce runners from Britain and Ireland.
The draw has been conducted, final preparations have been made, and now it’s time for Templegate to help you identify a winner.
Below, he reviews each horse, providing ratings from one to five stars—one being the least favorable and five the most.
He unveils his top selection for the 3.05pm race and shares a forecast of the top three contenders at the end.
You can also delve into his choices for all major races happening in the French capital.
Templegate’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runner-by-runner analysis
GIAVELLOTTO 2
A lot to achieve. Stays well and performs across different surfaces, but needs to enhance his performance in this competitive field.
Will likely run his usual solid race, but faces a challenging task.
WHITE BIRCH 2
WHITE is out. Achieved a Group 1 win at The Curragh last year, but form has declined this season.
This distance suits him, but softer ground would be an advantage. Appears vulnerable against tougher opponents.
ARROW EAGLE 1
BALD Eagle. Made early progress this season with wins in France but stumbled in the Prix Foy last time out.
Although he can handle this distance, he seems to be quite below the necessary caliber.
SOSIE 4
SO good. A French Group 1 standout with victories in the Prix Ganay and Ispahan, finishing close behind in the Prix Foy.
Adapts well to any conditions, the distance suits him, and he has promising chances to replicate last year’s fourth-place finish.
LOS ANGELES 2
LOS cause. Ballydoyle colt with Group 1 wins at Curragh this year and performed admirably last year.
Seems to have regressed lately and is likely to settle for a place finish at best.
BYZANTINE DREAM 5
A DREAM come true. Japanese contender in excellent form following a hard-fought win in the Prix Foy.
Shows stamina and speed, performs admirably on any ground, and appears set to make a significant impact despite a less-than-ideal draw.
QUISISANA 3
QUIS has options. A progressively improving mare on a five-win streak after a commanding victory in the Prix Jean Romanet recently.
Adapts to various ground conditions and performs well at 12f, but faces considerable class elevation today. An outsider who might perform well without winning.
KALPANA 3
HOT Pan. A reliable filly with a notable second place in the King George, proven over 12f, and capable on all surfaces.
Needs to recover from a disappointing display previously but shouldn’t be overlooked for an each-way chance.
AVENTURE 4
A winning TURE. Last year’s Arc runner-up and a multiple Group winner this season, most recently capturing the Vermeille.
Proven here, stays strongly, remains dependable, and is likely to deliver another impressive performance.
DARYZ 3
DAR could shine. An emerging colt with a flawless spring and a close second in a recent Group 3.
Bred for success at this distance, still improving, but this could be a year too soon for a breakthrough.
LEFFARD 3
ARD is hard to dismiss. Grand Prix de Paris winner, and better than his sixth place in the Prix Niel would suggest.
Strong at this distance and adaptable to conditions. Could sneak into contention with further improvement.
CUALIFICAR 4
CAR moves ahead. Claimed the Prix Niel recently with a solid performance at this distance.
Lightly raced and still developing, a major French player if delivering another career-best under Buick’s guidance.
HOTAZHELL 1
COLD on Hot. Last year’s Futurity Trophy winner facing a tough debut over 1m4f.
Respected connections but it would be surprising if he’s competitive at this level.
CROIX DU NORD 4
NORD star. Japanese Derby champion at this distance, narrowly defeating Daryz last time.
This distance suits him better and he’s flexible with ground conditions. Solid form might get him close, although stall 17 raises concerns.
ALOHI ALII 2
ALII untested. An impressive Group 2 winner at Deauville over 1m2f last time.
Is progressing but untested beyond that distance. His pedigree suggests he might excel, though the Arc is a significant challenge.
MINNIE HAUK 4
HAUK a star. An outstanding filly unbeaten this year, with victories in the Epsom, Irish, and Yorkshire Oaks.
Handles this distance well, adaptable to a range of ground conditions, and continues to strengthen. A strong contender from a favorable draw with a weight advantage over male rivals.
GEZORA 3
GE whizz. French Oaks winner who finished solidly second in the Vermeille recently behind Aventure.
Proven at this distance, she’s adaptable to any ground. Needs to elevate her performance but has potential for placing.
Templegate’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe tip and 1-2-3 forecast
BYZANTINE DREAM might finally fulfill Japan’s Arc aspirations.
This racing-enthusiastic nation has yet to win Europe’s premier event, but this four-year-old is showing great promise after a determined victory in the Prix Foy.
He handles various ground conditions and connections have smartly retained Oisin Murphy, which could be pivotal.
While his draw may not be perfect, winning from an outer position is a possibility.
Additionally, Minnie Hauk, supported by the Ballydoyle giants and unbeaten this season with an Oaks hat-trick, poses a serious threat due to her weight allowance.
Aventure, last year’s runner-up, returns in top form following a Vermeille victory and generally performs well here.
Japan also holds hope with Croix Du Nord, who has solid domestic form and navigated the track adeptly when defeating a strong each-way contender, Daryz.
Sosie could also offer value while Cualificar stands as another promising challenger for esteemed trainer Andre Fabre.
1st Byzantine Dream
2nd Minnie Hauk
3rd Aventure
Templegate’s Longchamp recommendations
TAMFANA seems poised to return to form in the Group 1 Prix De L’Opera (3.50).
Trainer David Menuisier has exercised patience with this four-year-old, who previously won the Sun Chariot in this category last year.
She ended her three-year-old season impressively with a solid third in the QEII Stakes and appeared geared up for another successful year.
Things haven’t gone as planned; following a promising second in the Sandown Mile, she underperformed in the Lockinge and hasn’t raced since that May outing.
Now coming back at 1m2f, a distance where she finished second in the French Oaks on her only attempt, and some ground cut would be beneficial.
If she regains her best form, she will challenge against the main rival See The Fire, who didn’t meet expectations at York last time.
MORE THUNDER looks primed for a Group 1 breakthrough in the Foret (4.25).
William Haggas’ colt has consistently shown he is above the handicap ranks, showcasing his potential with a smooth Group 2 victory at Newbury in August following a win in the Bunbury Cup.
He has been resting since that impressive performance, making this an opportune moment for a high-level triumph.
He has a favorable draw and thrives at this 7f distance.
Early on the card, JM JUNGLE stands as a solid each-way bet in the L’Abbaye (1.50).
The Quinns won this race two years ago and have another strong opportunity with this five-year-old, who has enjoyed a successful season.
He triumphed in the Dash at Epsom on Derby day and performed admirably in competitive fields at York.
He returned to winning form, capturing the King George at Goodwood and nearly replicated that level again with a narrow miss in the Nunthorpe last time.
He adapts well to different ground conditions and should be competitive.
While local winners may be few on Arc day, NIGHTTIME (1.15) possesses a strong chance for Christopher Head.
He has improved steadily, following a Listed win at Deauville with a commendable Group 3 triumph over this course and distance last month.
With minimal races under his belt, he just needs a bit more to surpass O’Brien hopeful Puerto Rico and likely favorite Rayif in Aga Khan colors.
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